Exciting BCC Races in 2008?

St. Petersburg Times: Pinellas commissioner Ronnie Duncan won't seek re-election

Couple this expected realization with the speculation on Commissioner Bob Stewart's possible retirement and it looks like we might have an exciting Pinellas County Commission campaign in 2008. It also looks as though everybody and their brother is planning on jumping in on either one of these countywide commission seats.

Here's the possible candidates thus far:

District 1, At-Large (Duncan seat)

Ray Brooks (GOP)

Jane Gallucci (GOP)

Paul Matton (DEM)

District 3, At-Large (Stewart seat)

Nancy Bostock (GOP)

Jim Sebesta (GOP)

Darden Rice (DEM)

These two seats may prove to be the first act in what looks to be a very interesting election cycle. Supposing Bostock and Gallucci depart School Board seats to run for County Commission, two seats formerly held by Republicans (on this "non-partisan" board) may be primed for Democratic pick-up. As things stand now, the School Board has a one member Republican majority. 

The other interesting aspect of this is Jim Sebesta's name being entered into the mix. Aside from the obvious smack down he would lay on most other Republican primary challengers, there is another dynamic at work here. Since Bill Young has decided to seek re-election in 2008, the stage is set for a 2010 or 2012 open Congressional election. Can you think of a better way to keep your name in the mix than to run for an at-large County Commission seat that includes the entire Congressional district? Sounds better than running around being a former State Senator to me. 

Stay tuned and once Bob Stewart makes his announcement, we'll be here to divine the tea leaves and see what will happen next.

Tampa Tribune USF Silliness

Tampa Tribune: USF On A High D.C.-Pork Diet

Chronicle of Higher Education: College's Earmarks Grow, Amid Criticism

I can let an extraordinarily poor headline slip past, but there has been a stunning revelation in this article that I just have to point out. The Tampa Tribune has this unfortunate habit of running with statistics that look to have been sexed up by a 4th grader with a calculator. That is saying that our friends at the Tribune will run an article about a shocking statistic such as "USF received more earmarks than all but 9 universities" without taking into consideration that USF also happens to be the ninth largest university in the country by student population. Just take a look at this handy reference from UF.

Looking at how the 9th largest university is the 9th highest recipient of Congressional earmarks is nice, but we should really be asking what the heck the University of South Alabama did to get its $33.4 million in 2008. Never mind that we're talking about a total of approximately $477 million here in a federal budget of about $7 trillion (with a 't'). Are there better things that we could be spending this money on? More than likely. Does it bother me that Congress is allocating money for academic research, capital projects, and other money to benefit universities that are already strapped for cash? Not a bit.

As a quick sidebar, the last time the Tribune went crazy with inconsequential statistics was during their expose of personal day abuse at HARTline. Apparently 42% of sick days happened to be either a Monday or a Friday. That sounds like a lot until you realize that, out of a five day work week, one day represents 20% of the week and combining two days would be 40% of the work week. Since HARTline runs seven days a week (much to the writer's chagrin when he's navigating South Tampa on a Saturday), we'll say that one day is 14.3% of their work week. With that in mind, the expected number should be 28.6% of days off on Mondays and Fridays. So there is an increased likelihood that drivers will take off either Monday or Friday, but it is hardly a panic situation.

Richardson's Next Gig

In case you've missed it, there's been some talk of Bill Richardson being Judas after nearly endorsing Hillary Clinton after his Super Bowl party with Bill Clinton and then later endorsing Barack Obama. The idea is that Richardson saw the writing on the wall that Hillary was not going to win the nomination and scrambled into Obama's corner in order to get a job in the new administration. I don't think this is the case though. You see, Bill Richardson has been spending his free time doing two things: 1) running New Mexico, and 2) growing a spiffy I-didn't-get-elected-President beard ala Al Gore circa 2001. 

Before I continue, I have to tell you two more things: 1) I worked in the frozen tundra of New Hampshire for Richardson and I honestly like the guy and 2) politics is a lot like acting, it's hard to find a steady paying gig. Richardson's a smart guy and knows this, so I think he's decided to do things Fred Thompson style and audition for a regular guest spot on a long running series. Thing is that Thompson already has Law and Order locked up. So what else is out there that will be around for aeons to come? Days of Our Lives! 

I'm thinking that Bill Richardson is about to do what he can to oust Joseph Mascolo from the Days cast and take over as perennial villain, mobster, and fine wine aficionado Stefano DeMira. The proof is compelling:

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Just think, when you see Bill Richardson kidnap John and brainwash him or sabotage somebody's plane in order to win a decades-long feud, you'll remember that you heard it here first. 

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In order for me to not be a complete single party hack, I think it's important to call attention to another politician that's about to make it big as an actor: Rudy Giuliani. My hunch here is that he'll work on the much anticipated remake of the classic silent film Nosferatu as the namesake character. Just take a look:

SH55 Special Election: Baptism by Fire

Candidates

-Calvester Benjamin-Anderson (WRI)

-Charles McKenzie (DEM)

-Darryl Rouson (DEM)

-Earnest Williams (DEM)

Before I get too far into things, I think a disclaimer is in order. This is a race that I speak about with hesitation. Many of my friends from the Democratic Party are deeply involved with the McKenzie and Rouson campaigns. The greatest number is involved with Darryl Rouson. This race has produced some very real political drama that will become apparent as we do the rundown:

Calvester Benjamin-Anderson, Write-In: based upon this St. Petersburg Times article, it seems as though Benjamin-Anderson is a former client-done-wrong by Darryl Rouson. Benjamin-Anderson has alleged to the Florida Bar and through a federal lawsuit that Rouson charged her excessive legal fees and did not render some services. The bar complaint and the law suit were dismissed. Her entering the race closes the primary to Democrats only with the idea that this may hurt Rouson due to his changing party affiliation shortly before filing for this seat. As a write-in candidate with an extremely long and hyphenated name, I do not expect her to be successful in this campaign.

Charles McKenzie, Democrat: McKenzie is by all accounts a well-qualified credible candidate. There is only one problem. McKenzie's base is primary built around the portions of this district in Manatee and Sarasota Counties. The lion's share of this district is centered around Southern Pinellas County where McKenzie enjoys little to no name recognition. There is also the problem that he has reached out to more leftist elements of the Pinellas County Democratic community such as former Pinellas DEC chair Ed Helm, the Progressive Democrats, and the club at the center of the 2006 primary-endorsing scandal, the St. Petersburg Democratic Club. I can only think of one candidate supported by these interests that has been successful and that is St. Petersburg Councilman Wengay "Newt" Newton. Supposing Rouson and Williams blow each other up, there could be a path to victory for McKenzie if Pinellas County turnout is lower than expected and if his campaign can mobilize voters in Manatee and Sarasota Counties.

Darryl Rouson, Democrat: Rouson is the deeply connected former chair of the Pinellas NAACP, a graduate of St. Pete Catholic High School, local attorney, and fairly well known to many in the Tampa Bay Area. He has also been appointed to the Taxation and Budget Reform Commission, a state board, and has close ties with Governor Charlie Crist, St. Petersburg Mayor Rick Baker, and many other influential people. The problem is that he also suffers from several liabilities including a past history of cocaine abuse, has a criminal record, and switched his party affiliation from Republican about two weeks prior to entering this race. He has been largely in front of these issues and was praised by the St. Petersburg Times for his openness in addressing this issues in that paper's endorsement. He has been embraced by many in the local Democratic community such as State Representative Bill Heller and outgoing State Representative Frank Peterman. Rouson also enjoys the support of many influential leaders in the Black community including Dr. Goliath Davis and Deveron Gibbons, both of whom have been credited with securing St. Petersburg Mayor Rick Baker's deep support within this constituency. From where I sit, it looks like Rouson has kissed all the right rings, brought on board all the right supporters, and is headed toward success in tomorrow's primary and over write-in candidate Calvester Benjamin-Anderson in the general election.

Earnest Williams, Democrat: Williams is a two-term St. Petersburg City Councilman who has long had his eyes set upon this seat. Before Rouson became a Democrat, it was widely anticipated that Williams would seek this seat once Frank Peterman moved on or was term limited. The idea that this election was to be Williams' turn was killed by Rouson running. Williams has further complicated his situation by not seriously campaigning in this special election. Aside from putting up yard signs and canvassing a few neighborhoods, there does not seem to be a Williams campaign at all. I suspect that Williams may be waiting until the general election for this seat in the fall to become a serious candidate and seek election to a full two year term. Aside from that theory, I think Williams is in a pretty bad spot unless there has been a secret mail campaign that this super-voting Democrat has yet to encounter.

Other Thoughts: It is a generally accepted truth that first term incumbents are the most difficult opponents to beat because of little to no record and the power of incumbency. This is why there is such a fight for what amounts to three weeks in Tallahassee and many more months of campaigning and fund raising. 

In making a prediction, one only has to look at the shear amount of work put in by the Rouson campaign to see that he has flat out-worked all the other candidates. In large part the campaigns of the candidates that aren't Darryl Rouson seem to revolve around the theme of who is the real Democrat or a negative Rouson platform. I don't think either of these themes will gain much traction in this primary. For better or worse, it looks as though the next representative from District 55 will be none other than Darryl Rouson.