SH55 Special Election: Baptism by Fire

Candidates

-Calvester Benjamin-Anderson (WRI)

-Charles McKenzie (DEM)

-Darryl Rouson (DEM)

-Earnest Williams (DEM)

Before I get too far into things, I think a disclaimer is in order. This is a race that I speak about with hesitation. Many of my friends from the Democratic Party are deeply involved with the McKenzie and Rouson campaigns. The greatest number is involved with Darryl Rouson. This race has produced some very real political drama that will become apparent as we do the rundown:

Calvester Benjamin-Anderson, Write-In: based upon this St. Petersburg Times article, it seems as though Benjamin-Anderson is a former client-done-wrong by Darryl Rouson. Benjamin-Anderson has alleged to the Florida Bar and through a federal lawsuit that Rouson charged her excessive legal fees and did not render some services. The bar complaint and the law suit were dismissed. Her entering the race closes the primary to Democrats only with the idea that this may hurt Rouson due to his changing party affiliation shortly before filing for this seat. As a write-in candidate with an extremely long and hyphenated name, I do not expect her to be successful in this campaign.

Charles McKenzie, Democrat: McKenzie is by all accounts a well-qualified credible candidate. There is only one problem. McKenzie's base is primary built around the portions of this district in Manatee and Sarasota Counties. The lion's share of this district is centered around Southern Pinellas County where McKenzie enjoys little to no name recognition. There is also the problem that he has reached out to more leftist elements of the Pinellas County Democratic community such as former Pinellas DEC chair Ed Helm, the Progressive Democrats, and the club at the center of the 2006 primary-endorsing scandal, the St. Petersburg Democratic Club. I can only think of one candidate supported by these interests that has been successful and that is St. Petersburg Councilman Wengay "Newt" Newton. Supposing Rouson and Williams blow each other up, there could be a path to victory for McKenzie if Pinellas County turnout is lower than expected and if his campaign can mobilize voters in Manatee and Sarasota Counties.

Darryl Rouson, Democrat: Rouson is the deeply connected former chair of the Pinellas NAACP, a graduate of St. Pete Catholic High School, local attorney, and fairly well known to many in the Tampa Bay Area. He has also been appointed to the Taxation and Budget Reform Commission, a state board, and has close ties with Governor Charlie Crist, St. Petersburg Mayor Rick Baker, and many other influential people. The problem is that he also suffers from several liabilities including a past history of cocaine abuse, has a criminal record, and switched his party affiliation from Republican about two weeks prior to entering this race. He has been largely in front of these issues and was praised by the St. Petersburg Times for his openness in addressing this issues in that paper's endorsement. He has been embraced by many in the local Democratic community such as State Representative Bill Heller and outgoing State Representative Frank Peterman. Rouson also enjoys the support of many influential leaders in the Black community including Dr. Goliath Davis and Deveron Gibbons, both of whom have been credited with securing St. Petersburg Mayor Rick Baker's deep support within this constituency. From where I sit, it looks like Rouson has kissed all the right rings, brought on board all the right supporters, and is headed toward success in tomorrow's primary and over write-in candidate Calvester Benjamin-Anderson in the general election.

Earnest Williams, Democrat: Williams is a two-term St. Petersburg City Councilman who has long had his eyes set upon this seat. Before Rouson became a Democrat, it was widely anticipated that Williams would seek this seat once Frank Peterman moved on or was term limited. The idea that this election was to be Williams' turn was killed by Rouson running. Williams has further complicated his situation by not seriously campaigning in this special election. Aside from putting up yard signs and canvassing a few neighborhoods, there does not seem to be a Williams campaign at all. I suspect that Williams may be waiting until the general election for this seat in the fall to become a serious candidate and seek election to a full two year term. Aside from that theory, I think Williams is in a pretty bad spot unless there has been a secret mail campaign that this super-voting Democrat has yet to encounter.

Other Thoughts: It is a generally accepted truth that first term incumbents are the most difficult opponents to beat because of little to no record and the power of incumbency. This is why there is such a fight for what amounts to three weeks in Tallahassee and many more months of campaigning and fund raising. 

In making a prediction, one only has to look at the shear amount of work put in by the Rouson campaign to see that he has flat out-worked all the other candidates. In large part the campaigns of the candidates that aren't Darryl Rouson seem to revolve around the theme of who is the real Democrat or a negative Rouson platform. I don't think either of these themes will gain much traction in this primary. For better or worse, it looks as though the next representative from District 55 will be none other than Darryl Rouson.